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Cake day: March 23rd, 2022

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  • It’s more accurate to say, he wants (or claims to want) to. There is no guarantee that he will succeed, and in fact the numbers of people he would have to deport if he followed through on all his deportation promises (when you include all of the rhetoric about “illegal immigrants”) are so large that the whole project appears to be absurd and entirely unfeasible from the get go. There is just no way you can deport millions of people without a massive mobilization effort.

    The costs alone would be exorbitant, and on top of that it would take years with the current processes that are in place. They would need to change the laws and switch to much more aggressive, Nazi like tactics to do it, and that would provoke resistance. Yes they can probably crush that resistance if they are prepared to escalate the level of state and right wing militia violence, but in an already very unstable and polarized political environment that is a risky move…

    I think Biden and Obama already did about as much deportation as they possibly could, and i expect Trump to do about the same amount. When he makes statements about all the people he’s going to deport Trump is simply doing “right wing virtue signaling”. It’s rhetoric that plays well with his base, but that just like the promises of “re-industrialization”, is probably going to be very hard to turn into reality, for practical reasons more so than political ones.



  • Europe still has enough of a weapons industry

    With energy prices being what they are, how long will they have any industry at all anymore?

    to make war unprofitable for the Russian bourgeoisie

    That’s not how this works. War is always profitable for a certain segment of the bourgeoisie. And for Russia this war in particular is not driven by immediate profit but by national security imperatives, which will not change regardless how much money and weapons Europe throws at it. But they will get their profit regardless after the war ends with all of the resources they have in the new territories.

    They can start kidnapping people from the streets, Ukraine style, and who’s gonna protest?

    Here is where we differ. I really don’t think they can. So far, their warmongering has been if not exactly popular then at least ignored by most of the population because the western public hasn’t been directly affected.

    When you have these far right parties that are already running on Euro-skepticism and that are positioning themselves as the more isolationist and pro-peace option (because the left has utterly failed to provide a pro-peace alternative and has stupidly left that rhetorical space open for the far right to take up), it would be political suicide for the already deeply unpopular liberal centrist parties to get directly involved in such a distant war.

    They would have to manufacture consent on a scale orders of magnitude larger than what they already have. They would need some kind of major false flag attack, possibly some staged nuclear provocation by the Ukrainians, or some direct retaliation by Russia to an extreme provocation from the West, but Russia is smart enough to know not to give them that pretext.

    Even then i have doubts they would be able to mobilize people in the same way that Ukraine has done, where there were years and years of extreme nationalist propaganda preparing the public for it.

    The Ukrainians at least are fighting because they believe that doing so will get them into the promised land of EU and NATO, which has been sold to them as a paradise that would make them all wealthy and prosperous and free. What would the Europeans even be fighting for? The average western European is not like the average Ukrainian. And it doesn’t appear as if the Poles or the Romanians are very enthusiastic about becoming the next Ukraine.

    Russia already defeated the best and largest army the collective West was able to put together in Europe. No matter how much they may want to, the Europeans won’t be able to conjure a whole other army out of a hat with their arsenals as emptied as they now are, with their economy in crisis, and with the US pulling out.


  • Seeing how the US has withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement, which itself is the bare minimum of symbolic actions and really lacks any real enforcement mechanisms, and seeing how, through Democrat and Republican administrations alike it has continued to double down on fracking and offshore drilling, i’d say the US political elite appears to be trying to deliberately do everything they can to make their emissions rise. If despite all of this emissions are still going down, i have to wonder how much of that is simply due to the de-industrialization and outsourcing of industry that has been happening for the past three decades. In which case no credit can or should be given to the US on this issue whatsoever, because all they did was export the problem so someone else would have to try and solve it.