Russia’s Finance Ministry is reviewing this year’s budget and weighing spending cuts outside defense and social commitments as mounting fiscal pressures strain state finances, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said, signaling the government may be forced into painful tradeoffs as economic growth slows and the budget deficit widens.
In an interview with the Kommersant business daily, Siluanov said officials were reassessing spending plans because of “changes in macroeconomic conditions,” while emphasizing that defense and social obligations remained untouchable priorities.
Russia’s wartime economy is under growing strain as weaker growth, declining oil and gas revenues and rising debt-servicing costs threaten to deepen budget shortfalls.
…
He [Siluanov] said the government had relied heavily on reserves accumulated in previous years, including Russia’s National Wealth Fund (NWF) and commodity-related revenues.
…
“Federal budget expenditures have grown at an accelerated pace in recent years,” Siluanov said. “Since 2019 they have increased by almost 3.5 percentage points of GDP — from 16.6% to 20.0% in 2025, more than doubling in nominal terms.”
…
Russia’s federal budget deficit reached 5.8 trillion rubles ($81.78 billion) in January-April, more than double the level recorded in the same period a year earlier and 1.6 times the full-year target.
…
[Economist Dmitry] Polevoy said spending cuts could prove difficult, if not impossible, under current geopolitical conditions, particularly if military spending remains protected.
…
One recent study (posted in this comm by another user not long ago, see here) concludes that Russia will increasingly face financial crisis, it will become poorer and more backward, but there will likely be no output collapse. This is in line with many other economic studies on the topic that have emerged in the last couple of years.
The NK path. If they get internet under control it’s a possibility I imagine.
There is a real possibility for a coup IMO, driven by the economic downturn.
We’ll see I guess!